This Course Guide has been taken from the most recent presentation of the course. It would be useful for reference purposes but please note that there may be updates for the following presentation.
MATH S249
Practical Modern Statistics
Welcome to MATH S249 Practical Modern Statistics. The aim of the course is to provide a broad perspective on modern statistics, by introducing you to four important topics, namely medical statistics, time series, multivariate analysis, and Bayesian statistics. The four topics covered in the course use quite different techniques, so the course is organized in four independent books, each of which aims to provide a practical introduction to the subject, with much emphasis on real problems and real data.
The focus throughout the course is very much on statistical ideas, analysis of data, and interpretation of results. Much use is made of three software packages, SPSS, LearnBayes and WinBUGS, to do the calculations, thus freeing you to display the data, choose appropriate techniques, undertake the analysis and interpret the results.
We hope that you will find the course enjoyable, interesting and useful.
2.1 Preparatory work
The course requires a good knowledge of statistical ideas and methods at an introductory level. If you have taken MATH S280 Statistical Methods for Decision Analysis Analysing Data or the discontinued course MATH S248 Analysing Data, you will have the required statistical background. MATH S249 begins with an Introduction to statistical modelling in which all the prerequisite statistical knowledge is reviewed.
MATH S249 does not include any complicated mathematical arguments, and you will not be required to produce a great deal of algebra in your assignments. However, you do need some basic mathematical skills, similar to those required for a basic statistics course such as MATH S280.
2.2 Calculator
You will need a calculator, with basic mathematical functions including log and exp. A memory is useful. More advanced features, such as statistical functions, graphics and programming facilities are not required. If you have not used a calculator for some time, you might find it useful to practice using it. In particular check that you can obtain natural logarithms, as opposed to logs to base 10 – only natural logs are used in MATH S249.
Calculators are allowed in the examination. The University has a List of Approved Models of calculators so that students know what types of calculators are allowed in the examination. This List is updated according to the types of calculators approved by the Hong Kong Examinations and Assessment Authority. You will receive the List from Registry before the examination.
You are NOT allowed to use a non-approved calculator or a calculator without 'HKEA/HKEAA Approved' label in the examination.
A list of approved calculators is attached in Appendix I for reference.
2.3 Computer
You will need access to a computer capable of running the course software, an Internet browser and a printer. The course software includes SPSS, LearnBayes and WinBUGS. LearnBayes and WinBUGS are provided on the course CD-ROM which is given in the course material package. Students are required to purchase SPSS (see Stop Press). Installation instructions are provided with the CD-ROM, and further information is available in the Software Guide. You will need to install LearnBayes and WinBUGS before you start studying Book 4.
3.1 Study texts
The study texts comprise of Introduction to statistical modelling, Books 1 to 4, and the Review Unit. Each one of Books 1 to 4 has an associated computer book containing software-based activities.
Books 1, 2 and 3 each comprise three parts; Book 4 has four parts. This division into parts is purely to help you pace your study.
The Introduction to statistical modelling and each part of the four books is timetabled for two weeks' study (see the Presentation Schedule).
The Review Unit contains some revision material to help you begin your preparation for the examination.
3.2 Course software
The course software comprises SPSS, LearnBayes and WinBUGS.
SPSS is a commercial statistics package that is widely used by statisticians and other researchers. You will be introduced to SPSS in the Introduction to statistical modelling, and will use SPSS in Computer Books 1, 2 and 3.
LearnBayes was developed specifically for MATH S249, and serves both as a teaching aid and as a software tool for Bayesian analysis. You will use LearnBayes in Parts I and II of Book 4.
WinBUGS was developed by researchers at the Medical Research Council's Biostatistics Unit in Cambridge, and is now established as the leading statistical package for undertaking Bayesian analyses using Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. You will use WinBUGS in Parts III and IV of Book 4.
3.3 Course Handbook
A Handbook is provided to give you a convenient source of basic definitions and formulae for use throughout the year, and during the examination. You will not be allowed to bring the Course Handbook to the examination. Another copy of the handbook will be given to you together with the examination paper.
3.4 Presentation Schedule
The Presentation Schedule sets out an overall schedule for the study weeks for each unit. Assignment cut-off dates and the dates for tutorial sessions are also incorporated. (Detailed arrangements for tutorial sessions are posted on the OLE.)
Although the suggested study week for each unit is just for your reference, it is important to keep to schedule. For most assignments, the cut-off date is very soon after the end of the study week for the last of the relevant units. We recommend that you try to finish the assignment questions for each unit as soon as you finish the unit, otherwise before the cut-off dates for the assignments you will have a lot of work to do in only a few days.
3.5 Stop Presses
The Stop Presses act as a sort of course newsletter, containing useful information of various types. You should always read these as soon as they are posted to OLE.
4.1 Continuous assessment
You will be awarded a grade for each TMA which you submit (and zero for each assignment which is not submitted). The assignments of the course are as follows. (See the Presentation Schedule for their cut-off dates.)
| M249 TMA 01 | Book 1 | |
| M249 TMA 02 | Book 2 | |
| M249 TMA 03 | Book 3 | |
| M249 TMA 04 | Book 4 |
The course uses the 100% rule as defined in the Assessments and Examinations section of the Student Handbook. The best three TMA scores are used to calculate the overall continuous assessment score.
Overall, the continuous assessment contributes 30% of your final score for the course. See the Assignment Booklet for a detailed breakdown of marks within each assignment.
4.2 The examination
There is a three-hour examination at the end of the course which is based upon the whole course. You will be sent a specimen examination paper which you should work through carefully before the examination. Sample solutions will be provided. You will not be allowed to bring the Course Handbook to the examination. Another copy of the handbook will be given to you together with the examination paper as mentioned in Section 3.3.
The examination constitutes the remaining 70% of your overall score for the course.
4.3 How to pass the course
The assessment comprises two components: the continuous assessment and the examination. The contribution of each type of assessment is shown in the following table:
| Assessment type | Weightings |
| 4 TMAs (count the best 3 of the 4) | 30% |
| Examination (3 hours) | 70% |
| TOTAL | 100% |
The preliminary overall course score is calculated as 30% of your overall TMA score, plus 70% of your final examination mark. If each of your overall continuous assessment score and your final examination score are higher than 40%, plus you have paid your fees for the course, then you will be certain to pass MATH S249.
5.1 From your tutor
Your tutor is there to help you understand the ideas in the course and the best way for him/her to do this is through the comments put on your TMAs. Go through the script and take note of the comments written by your tutor; they will help you avoid similar errors in later assignments and in the examination. Try to attend tutorials because there you will have the opportunity to talk to your tutor directly and, just as important, to talk to other students.
In addition, tutors make themselves available for you to telephone them for immediate help or advice. Personal particulars of your tutor should be sent to you by the Registry before the course starts. Keep your tutor's address since you have to send your TMAs to him/her directly.
5.2 Online support
Besides telephone contact, the Online Learning Environment (OLE) will be used to facilitate communication among all the participants in MATH S249 – students, tutors and Course Coordinator. The OLE is an online platform for you to gain access to and use the different Internet tools, and to engage in conversation with other MATH S249 participants.
To help you to use the OLE, please refer to the OLE User Guide (http://ole.hkmu.edu.hk/help.html).
Using the OLE is a required activity in your study of MATH S249. You will find that the discussion board feature is useful for posting requests for help. However, you should not expect an immediate reply when you post any problems in the discussion board.
5.3 From your fellow students
One of the best ways of learning is by talking about your work with fellow students. In this second-level course you may only see them at the infrequent tutorials during the year. That leaves a lot of weeks when you could be on your own. Make sure then that you have the telephone numbers of some MATH S249 students so that you can keep in touch. You might even like to form your own self-help group to meet regularly: this is often a good way of getting people to discuss common difficulties, especially in the assessment questions.
A word of warning about study groups; whereas students are encouraged to discuss their problems with one another, including those relating to assignments, it is essential that you submit your own attempt at a TMA and not the one you copied. You must remember that the assignments are part of the teaching and learning process and so it is at your own interest to ensure that you submit your own work.
5.4 From the Course Coordinator
If there are any queries which your tutor cannot settle for you, he/she will probably advise you to contact the Course Coordinator. The Course Coordinator is a full-time staff member of the School of Science and Technology at HKMU and is responsible for the course presentation.
Appendix: Approved Calculator Lists
LIST OF APPROVED CALCULATORS for EXAMINATIONS (An updated list will sent to you before the examination)
(In addition to the following models, calculators bearing the “HKEA/HKEAA Approved” labels are also allowed.)
A.MAX
| SC-801 | SC-802 | SC-809 | SC-813 |
ATABA/AURORA
| AC‑688 | AC‑689 | AC‑690 | AC‑692 | |||||||||
| AC‑693 | AC‑694 | AT‑1 | AT‑105 | |||||||||
| AT‑106 A | AT‑108 A | AT‑168 | AT‑208 N/B | |||||||||
| AT‑231 A/B/C/D | AT‑232 /S | AT‑233 | AT‑241 T | |||||||||
| AT‑244 H | AT‑256 H | AT‑268 | AT‑281 /S | |||||||||
| AT‑282 | AT‑283 | AT‑368 | AT‑508 | |||||||||
| AT‑510 | AT‑512 | AT‑518 | AT‑520 | |||||||||
| AT‑522 | AT‑601 A | AT‑620 A | AT‑630 | |||||||||
| AT‑687 | AT‑2129 A/B | AT‑6120 | AT‑6320 | |||||||||
| AT‑9300 | BD‑1 | BD‑2 | D‑8 /N | |||||||||
| D‑10 /N | D‑12 N | SC-170 | SC-180 | |||||||||
| SC-200 | SC-500 |
BISTEC
| B300 | B500 | B600 | B700 | |||||||||
| B900 |
BLT
| BT-206 | BT-2016-12 | BT-2018-12 | DC-308-8S/12 | |||||||||
| DC-318-8S/12 | DC-338-8S/12 | DC-408 | DC-508 | |||||||||
| SC-183 |
CANON
| BS‑100 | BS-102 | BS‑120 | BS 122 | |||||||||
| BS-123 | BS‑200 | BS‑300 | BS-1200TS | |||||||||
| CB II BK/G | CB III | F‑45 | F‑65 | |||||||||
| F‑73 /P | F‑402 | F-500 | F-502 | |||||||||
| F-600 | F‑602 | F-604 | F-612 | |||||||||
| F-700 | F‑800 P | F‑802 P | FC-4 S | |||||||||
| FC-42 S | FINANCIAL/II | FS-400 | FS-600 | |||||||||
| HS-20H | HS-100 | HS-102H | HS-120L | |||||||||
| HS-1200RS/T/TV/TS | KC-20 | KS-10 | KS‑20 | |||||||||
| KS‑30 | KS‑80 | KS-100 | KS-102 | |||||||||
| KS‑120 | KS-122 | KS-123 | L‑20 II W AD | |||||||||
| L‑30 II W AD | L-813 II | L‑1011 | L‑1214II/AD | |||||||||
| L‑1218 | LC-22 | LC‑23 | LC‑34 /T | |||||||||
| LC-44 | LC‑63 | LC‑64 T | LC-101 | |||||||||
| LC-500H | LC‑1016 | LC-1222 | LC-1620H | |||||||||
| LS‑8 | LS‑21 | LS-25H II | LS‑31 II | |||||||||
| LS-32 | LS-39H | LS‑41 II | LS‑42 | |||||||||
| LS‑43 B/S | LS-51 | LS‑52 BK/W | LS‑54 W | |||||||||
| LS‑61 | LS-62 BK/W | LS‑80/H | LS-81 Z | |||||||||
| LS‑82 H/Z | LS-88Hi/V | LS‑100 II/H/TS | LS-102 Z | |||||||||
| LS-120H/L/RS/V | LS-151 | LS‑500 | LS‑510 | |||||||||
| LS‑550 G/B1 | LS‑552 | LS‑553 | LS‑560 | |||||||||
| LS-562 | LS‑563 | LS-566H | LS-716H | |||||||||
| LS-1000H | LS-1200H | M‑10 | M‑20 | |||||||||
| M-30 | OS‑1200 | PS‑8 BK/W | PS‑10BK/W | |||||||||
| SK-100H | T-14BK/G/W | T‑19 | TR-10H | |||||||||
| TR-1200H | TS‑81/H | TS‑83 | TS-85H | |||||||||
| TS-101 | TS‑103 | TS-105H | TS-120TL | |||||||||
| TX-1210Hi | WS‑100 | WS‑120 | WS-121H | |||||||||
| WS-200H | WS-220H | WS-1200H | WS-1210Hi | |||||||||
| WS-2222 | WS-2224 | WS-2226 |
CASIO
| AZ-45F | BF‑80 | BF‑100 | CV‑700 | |||||||||
| D-20A | D-20D/M | D-40D | D‑100 W/L/LA | |||||||||
| D-120 L/W/T/LA/TE | DF-10L | DF-20L | DF-120TE | |||||||||
| DJ-120 | DN‑10 | DN‑20 | DN‑40 | |||||||||
| DS‑1 B/L | DS‑2 B/L | DS‑3/L | DS‑8 E | |||||||||
| DS‑10E/L/G | DS‑20 E/L/G | DS‑120 | FC‑100 | |||||||||
| FN‑10 | FN‑20 | FX‑8 | FX‑10 F | |||||||||
| FX‑39 | FX‑50 F | FX-55 | FX‑61 F | |||||||||
| FX‑68 /B | FX‑78 | FX‑82/B/C/D/L/LB/SUPER/SX/W | FX‑85 /M/N/V | |||||||||
| FX‑100/A/B/C/V/D | FX‑115 /M/N/V/D | FX‑120 | FX‑135 | |||||||||
| FX‑140 | FX‑210 | FX‑350/A/C/D/H/HA/W | FX‑451 M | |||||||||
| FX-500 /A | FX‑550 /S | FX‑570 A-/C‑/V/D/S | FX-911S/SA | |||||||||
| FX‑991/M/N/V/D/H/S | FX‑992 V/VB/S | FX‑3400 P | FX‑3600 P/V/A/PV | |||||||||
| FX-3650P | FX‑3800 P | FX-3900PV | FX-3950P | |||||||||
| HL‑100 L | HL‑122/L | HL‑812 /E/L | HL-820 A/LU/D | |||||||||
| HS-4A | HS‑8 G/L/LU/D | HS‑9 | HS‑88 | |||||||||
| HS‑90 | J-10 A/D | J‑20 | J‑30 C | |||||||||
| J‑100W/L/LA | J‑120 L/W/T | JE‑2 | JE‑3 | |||||||||
| JF-100/TE | JF-120TE | JL‑210 | JN‑10 | |||||||||
| JN‑20 | JN‑40 | JS‑8 C | JS‑10 /C/M/L/LA | |||||||||
| JS‑20/C/M/L/LA | JS‑25 | JS-40 L/LA | JS‑110 | |||||||||
| JS‑120 | JS‑140 | LC-401A | LC‑403 C/E/L/LU/LB | |||||||||
| LC-700 | LC-710 | LC‑787 G/GU | LC‑797 G/GU | |||||||||
| LC‑798 G | LC‑1000 /L | LC‑1210 | MC‑40 S | |||||||||
| MC‑801 S | MJ‑20 | MJ-120 | MS-5A | |||||||||
| MS-6 | MS‑7/LA | MS‑8 W/A | MS‑9 | |||||||||
| MS-10 W/L | MS-20W/TE | MS‑70 L | MS‑100 A/TE/V | |||||||||
| MS‑120 A/TE/V | MS‑140 A | MS‑170 L/LA | MS180 | |||||||||
| MS‑270 L/LA | MS-470 L | NS‑3 | NS-10L | |||||||||
| NS-20L | RC‑770 | S‑1 | S‑2 | |||||||||
| S‑20 L | SJ‑20 | SL‑80 E | SL‑100 A/B | |||||||||
| SL‑110 A/B | SL‑120 A/B | SL-200 | SL‑210 | |||||||||
| SL‑220 | SL‑240/L | SL‑300H/J/L/LH/LU/LB | SL‑310 M | |||||||||
| SL‑330 | SL‑350 | SL‑450 | SL‑510 /A | |||||||||
| SL‑704 | SL‑720 /L | SL‑760 A/C/LU/LB | SL-787 | |||||||||
| SL-790L | SL-797 | SL-805A | SL‑807 /A/L/LU | |||||||||
| SL-817 L | SL-850 | SL-910L | SL‑1000 M | |||||||||
| SL-1200L | SL‑1510 | SL-1530T | SL‑2000 M | |||||||||
| US‑20 | US‑100 | WD-100L | WD-120L | |||||||||
| WJ‑10 | WJ‑20 | WJ-100L | WJ120L |
CITIZEN
| CT-500 | CT‑600 | ELS-301 | ELS-302 | |||||||||
| ELS-501 | F‑908 /N | F‑920 | F-940 N | |||||||||
| F‑950 | FT‑200 | LC‑505 | LC‑508 N | |||||||||
| LC‑510 N | LC‑516 N | LC‑531 | LC-5001 | |||||||||
| LH-700 | LH-830 | SB‑741 P | SDC‑810 | |||||||||
| SDC‑814 | SDC‑826 | SDC‑830 | SDC‑833 | |||||||||
| SDC‑834 | SDC-836 | SDC‑839 | SDC-848 | |||||||||
| SDC‑850 | SDC‑865 | SDC-868 | SDC‑875 | |||||||||
| SDC-878 | SDC‑880 | SDC-888 | SDC-8001 | |||||||||
| SDC-8150 | SDC-8360 | SDC-8401 | SDC-8460 | |||||||||
| SDC-8480 | SDC-8780/L | SDC-8890 | SLD‑702 | |||||||||
| SLD‑705 B | SLD‑707 | SLD-708 | SLD‑711 /N | |||||||||
| SLD‑712 /N | SLD‑720 | SLD‑722 | SLD‑723 | |||||||||
| SLD‑725 | SLD‑732 | SLD‑735 | SLD-737 | |||||||||
| SLD‑740 | SLD-742 | SLD‑750 | SLD-760 | |||||||||
| SLD-767 | SLD‑781 | SLD-7001 | SLD-7401 | |||||||||
| SR‑30 | SR‑35 | SR‑70 | SR-260 | |||||||||
| SRP‑40 | SRP‑45 | SRP‑60 | SRP‑65 | |||||||||
| SRP‑75 | SRP-80 | SRP-285II |
HEWLETT‑PACKARD
| HP-6S | HP-6S Solar | HP-9S | HP‑10 B/BII | |||||||||
| HP‑11 C | HP‑12 C | HP‑15 C | HP‑16 C | |||||||||
| HP‑20 S | HP‑21 S | HP-30S |
KARCE
| KC-107 | KC-117 | KC-119 | KC121 | |||||||||
| KC127 | KC-153 | KC159 |
SHARP
| EL-231C/L | EL-233G | EL-240C | EL-310A | |||||||||
| EL-326L/S | EL-330A | EL331A | EL-334H/A | |||||||||
| EL-337M | EL338A | EL-344G | EL-354L | |||||||||
| EL-373 | EL376G | EL386L | EL387L | |||||||||
| EL-480G | EL-501V | EL-506A/G/R/V | EL‑509G/D/S/L/R/V | |||||||||
| EL‑520 D/G/L/R/V | EL‑530 A | EL-531 GH/H/P/LH/RH/VH | EL‑546D/G/L | |||||||||
| EL-556G/L | EL‑731 | EL-733A | EL-771C | |||||||||
| EL-782C | EL-792C | EL-879L | EL-2125 | |||||||||
| EL-2128H | EL-2135 | EL‑5020 |
TEXAS INSTRUMENTS
| BA-III | BA-SOLAR | BA-II/PLUS | BA-35 | |||||||||
| BUSINESS-EDGE | FINANCIAL-INVESTMENT-ANALYST | MATH EXPL0RER | TI-COLLEGIATE | |||||||||
| TI-25X SOLAR | TI-30 /Xa/Xa Solar/XIIB | TI-31 | TI-32 | |||||||||
| TI-34 /II | TI-35 /X | TI‑36 /X Solar | TI‑60 | |||||||||
| TI‑65 |
TRULY
| 101 /A | 102 | 103 | 105 | |||||||||
| 106 | 107 | P-127 | SC-106A | |||||||||
| SC-107B/C/F | SC-108 | SC-109 /X | SC-110 /X | |||||||||
| SC-111 /X | SC-118 /A/B | SC-128 |
[End of calculator list]
